Up to 9 Hurricanes Predicted for 2008
By ANTHONY McCARTNEY,
AP
Posted: 2008-05-22 16:26:05
TAMPA, Fla. (May 22) - The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season could be slightly busier than average, with a good chance of six to nine hurricanes forming, federal forecasters said Thursday in a new way of making predictions.
Hurricane Season Predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration said Thursday the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season could be a
little busier than average, with six to nine hurricanes forming. The agency said
there could be 12 to 16 named storms this season, which runs from June 1 to Nov.
30.
National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration officials also said 12 to 16 named storms and two to
five major hurricanes could form.
They said there is only a 60 to 70 percent chance for their predictions to come
true, the first time officials gave a probability. They took that step following
years of criticism of their long range forecasts, which have usually been fairly
accurate but in some cases have been way off.
For example, government forecasters expected 12 to 15 named storms in 2005, but
there turned out to be 28, the busiest season on record.
Forecasters stress that residents should always be prepared no matter what the
seasonal forecasts say, because even a slow season can be disastrous. The
government's seasonal forecasts don't predict whether, where or when any of
these storms may hit land.
Gerry Bell, the agency's lead forecaster for Atlantic hurricanes, said
probabilities were included because people had come to rely too much on the
forecasts. "Basically it was interpreted as a 100 percent chance," he said.
Major Hurricanes In History
Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the most intense hurricane ever. It measured 882 millibars, the lowest pressure on record. There were 27 named Atlantic storms that year, also a record.
An average
season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes of which two reach major
status with winds of more than 110 mph. This year should be about average or
slightly more active, forecasters said.
Forecasters and emergency responders fear that coastal residents will be
apathetic this year after the United States escaped the past two storm seasons
virtually unscathed.
"Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane
season. Review or complete emergency plans now - before a storm threatens," said
Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator. "Planning and preparation is the key
to storm survival and recovery."
Colorado State University weather researcher William Gray expects 15 named
storms, eight hurricanes and four major this year.
Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were
major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes
and three to five major hurricanes.
Gray was further off the mark. Before the start of the season, he forecast 17
named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.
The Atlantic season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press
Forecasters Predict Busy Hurricane Season
By DANICA COTO,
AP
Posted: 2008-04-09 19:55:43
Filed Under: Nation News
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (April 9) - A noted hurricane researcher predicted Wednesday that rising water temperatures in the Atlantic will bring a "well above average" storm season this year, including four major storms.
Hurricane Humberto aftermath in High Island, Texas, in 2007 | Dave Einsel, AP
Past Predictions vs. Reality
2007
Hurricane Season
Named storms - Predictions: 17 |
Reality: 15
Hurricanes - Predictions: 9 |
Reality: 6
Major hurricanes - Predictions: 5 |
Reality: 2
The updated
forecast by William Gray's team at Colorado State University calls for 15 named
storms in the Atlantic in 2008 and says there's a better than average chance
that at least one major hurricane will hit the United States.
An average of 5.9 hurricanes form in the Atlantic each year.
"The Atlantic is a bit warmer than in the past couple of years," said Phil
Klotzbach, a member of the forecast team. "That is something we would like to
keep an eye on."
Gray had projected seven hurricanes with three major storms in a preliminary
forecast in December.
One of the most closely watched hurricane forecasters, Gray has been issuing
hurricane predictions for more than 20 years. But he and others have been
criticized in recent years for having forecasts that were off the mark.
NOAA / Getty Images
Historic Hurricanes
Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the most intense hurricane ever. It measured 882 millibars, the lowest pressure on record. There were 27 named Atlantic storms that year, also a record.
Gray's team
says precise predictions are impossible, and the warnings raise awareness of
hurricanes.
"We have not been ashamed of our forecast failures. It is the nature of seasonal
forecasting to sometimes be wrong," Klotzbach said in a telephone interview from
the Bahamas, where the team announced the forecast at a weather conference.
The 2007 Atlantic season saw 15 named storms, six of which became hurricanes.
Two were major storms.
Before the June-November season, U.S. government scientists predicted 13 to 17
named storms and six hurricanes, three to five major. Gray was further off,
forecasting 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.
U.S. government forecasters issue their seasonal outlook in late May.
National Hurricane Center director Bill Read, who is in his first year on the
job, has said he would prefer to characterize the season in general terms — as
above average, average or below average — instead of trying to forecast a
precise number of storms.
"It doesn't matter what the numbers are," center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said
Wednesday, repeating a center mantra that it takes only one powerful storm to
make it a bad season.
Associated Press Writer Jessica Gresko in Miami contributed to this report.
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2008-04-09 16:35:26
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